For Clinton and Trump, Big Debate, Small Target

Keep this number in mind if you watch Monday night’s first presidential debate: 20%. That’s the slice of the American electorate that isn’t supporting either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump at the moment and, thus, the segment most likely to be swayed by what they see and hear.

Here’s my math: Approximately 40% of likely voters responding to polls in September say they will support Clinton and a similar number say they’re backing Trump. To the degree that those numbers change–a tick or two either way–the support seems to come from the one in five folks who seem to have plans that don’t include either of the mainstream candidates.

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