The days of job gains of 200,000 or more per month are likely in the past as the labor market continues to tighten and employers struggle to find qualified workers. Instead, expect a gain of 170,000 jobs to be reported for September. Despite the modest number, this is still likely to cause a slight drop in the unemployment rate, to 4.8%, and push up wages by 2.7% from a year earlier. That’s a bit faster than the yearly rate of 2.4% recorded in August.
A decent jobs gain of 150,000 or more, a drop in the unemployment rate and faster wage gains would signal the further improvement in the labor market that the Federal Reserve is looking for to justify its first quarter-point interest rate hike in a year. The end of the next Fed meeting is November 2, and it’s obvious that Fed Chair Janet Yellen has enough political sense not to do anything the week before the presidential election, lest she be blamed by one side or the other for trying to influence the results. Therefore, the Fed move will likely take place on December 14, safely after the election.
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