Do Oil Prices Have Room To Fall Further?

Folks hitting the road for July 4th this year won’t have much to complain about at the gas pump.  The day before the holiday, AAA reports that regular unleaded averages a mere $2.23 per gallon nationwide: The lowest price for early July since 2005. (Of course, that nationwide average includes some sharp regional variations. Californians are paying roughly $2.94 per gallon of regular. In South Carolina, the statewide norm is $1.90.) It’s hard to believe that just three years ago, the nationwide average price was $3.68 per gallon.

Of course, drivers can thank the oil market for those savings. The world has been awash in excess crude for more than two years now, and oil prices have plunged during that time. Even with OPEC limiting its oil exports to shrink the supply glut, prices have remained stubbornly low. Benchmark West Texas Intermediate showed some signs of rallying this spring, but topped out at about $53 per barrel in April before retreating below $50 again. In fact, WTI technically entered a bear market when it closed at $42.53 on June 21, marking a 20% decline from its April peak. (A small rebound has taken crude back to about $46.50.)

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