The Economic Toll of Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Harvey will ding third quarter GDP but boost the fourth quarter. Much of the Texas coast, including Houston — the nation’s fifth-largest metro area — was shut down for over a week because of the storm. As business resumes after Labor Day, it will be operating at about 80% of normal staffing levels for a while. That is likely to knock 0.3 percentage points off of U.S. GDP growth in the third quarter, resulting in a pace of about 2.5%. However, as more folks return to work, the economy will likely see a boost to GDP in the fourth quarter. Likewise, the national employment report for September is likely to come in weak, with a gain of fewer than 100,000 jobs, but the following months will show larger than average gains.

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