Here’s a good rule of thumb for forecasting the Middle East: Things will get worse before they get even worse. And in this part of the world, things always seem to be getting worse. Not surprising when the region’s other great maxim is: “The enemy of my enemy can still be my enemy.”
Virtually every recent U.S. president has ignored this lesson at his peril: Bill Clinton saw his efforts to secure peace between the Israelis and Palestinians succeed, then fail miserably. George W. Bush got bogged down in a long, costly and politically divisive war in Iraq. Barack Obama discovered, among other things, that killing Osama bin Laden, the mastermind behind the 9/11 attacks, did not spell the end of Islamic terrorism as a threat to the United States.
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