It’s too early to make a definitive call on the midterm elections, but here are some key factors shaping the campaign landscape.
The Generic Congressional Ballot: This poll asks people which party they would support in a congressional election, without mentioning any specific candidate. So far, Democrats have a clear advantage. RealClearPolitics, a political polling and news aggregator, shows the party with an average lead of 9 points on the generic ballot, based on polling data dating back to January 2017.
Continue reading “Control of Congress Rests on Handful of Critical Variables”
2017 was a groundbreaking year for North Korea’s nuclear program. This year will bring more provocations intended to challenge the United States and bolster Pyongyang’s claim of being a full-fledged nuclear power.
Harry Kazianis, director of defense studies at the Center for National Interest, already dubbed 2018 “the year of the North Korean missile.” But North Korea’s next move is on hold while it engages in talks with South Korea to ease tensions ahead of the 2018 Winter Olympics, which open in Pyeongchang, South Korea next month. Seoul and Washington suspended annual joint military exercises until after the Olympics as a sign of good faith.
Continue reading “North Korea’s Nuclear Drive will Upend Detente”
Forecasting political developments in the Middle East is a fool’s errand—doubly so when the country is Iran.
On New Year’s Eve 1977, President Carter famously called it “an island of stability in one of the more troubled areas of the world,” only to watch revolutionary students hijack the U.S. embassy in Tehran a year later, holding 52 Americans hostage for 444 days and crippling his presidency.
Continue reading “Iranian Protests Unlikely to Topple Anti-American Regime”
Sino-American relations will take a turn for the worse in 2018, as the Trump administration makes good on its trade threats and North Korea undermines President Trump’s positive relationship with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.
Despite his long-held skepticism about China’s trade practices, Trump spent his first year in office trying to woo Xi—Beijing’s most powerful leader in decades—in hopes of convincing him to take a harder line on Pyongyang’s nuclear provocations.
Continue reading “Trump Sets China in his 2018 Sights”
Here’s a good rule of thumb for forecasting the Middle East: Things will get worse before they get even worse. And in this part of the world, things always seem to be getting worse. Not surprising when the region’s other great maxim is: “The enemy of my enemy can still be my enemy.”
Virtually every recent U.S. president has ignored this lesson at his peril: Bill Clinton saw his efforts to secure peace between the Israelis and Palestinians succeed, then fail miserably. George W. Bush got bogged down in a long, costly and politically divisive war in Iraq. Barack Obama discovered, among other things, that killing Osama bin Laden, the mastermind behind the 9/11 attacks, did not spell the end of Islamic terrorism as a threat to the United States.
Continue reading “Trump Decision on Jerusalem Stokes Anger Throughout Middle East (Corrected)”
Reports that President Trump may force out Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and replace him with CIA Director Mike Pompeo have rocked Washington, D.C., once again underscoring the ongoing turmoil within the administration.
To some extent, this isn’t a surprise. Washington pundits have been writing Tillerson’s political obituary ever since reports emerged this summer that the secretary of state privately called Trump a “moron.”
Continue reading “Palace Intrigue at the State Department: Trump Contemplates Plan to Force Out Secretary of State”
North Korea ended two months of relative calm with a bang this week, launching its most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile yet in defiance of U.S.-led efforts to halt Pyongyang’s nuclear progress.
The missile reportedly traveled more than 2,800 miles into space – ten times higher than the International Space Station – flying for more than 50 minutes before splashing down in the Sea of Japan. Experts say it is another major leap forward in North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, potentially putting the entire U.S. mainland in range, including Washington, D.C.
Continue reading “Don’t Panic About North Korea’s Latest Missile Launch. (But Still Worry)”
The Justice Department moved this week to block AT&T’s proposed merger with Time Warner Cable. Now, the courts must decide the fate of the blockbuster deal that, if approved, would give America’s largest telecom company control over a media empire that includes CNN, HBO and other cable staples.
Will the merger go through? Flip a coin. This isn’t how antitrust cases of this kind normally proceed. The Justice Department regularly blocks transactions it deems “anti-competitive,” among them AT&T’s 2011 bid to acquire rival T-Mobile. But so-called “vertical mergers,” which involve firms operating at two different levels of an industry, have a better record of success.
Continue reading “Justice Dept. Trumps Blockbuster AT&T, Time-Warner Deal on Antitrust Grounds”
As you relax over the holiday weekend, pay close attention to what’s happening in Lebanon. Tensions are rising in this perennial Middle East battleground, with potentially big implications for the stability of an already unstable region.
The trouble began Saturday when Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned during a trip to Saudi Arabia, saying his life was threatened by the Iran-backed militia-cum-political party Hezbollah. Continue reading “Assertive Saudi Prince Sets His Sights On Lebanon”
It’s deja vu all over again for President Trump’s travel ban. This week, a federal court in Hawaii blocked the latest version of the president’s controversial executive order from going into effect, only seven months after the same court put a similar hold on Trump’s second travel ban.
Much has happened in those seven months. After multiple unfavorable lower level rulings, the second ban finally reached the Supreme Court this summer. But the justices ultimately declined to hear the case during the court’s fall session, arguing that the issue was moot since the order had already expired.
Continue reading “Trump’s Travel Ban: Third Time Not a Charm”