Can Bernie Sanders Claim the Nomination?

Can Bernie Sanders win the Democratic nomination? The short answer is yes. The socialist senator from Vermont has emerged as the party’s front-runner after narrowly losing Iowa and narrowly winning New Hampshire.

Most polls indicate he’s well on his way to victory in Nevada, the next primary contest. (Though like Iowa, Nevada is a caucus state, so prepare to be surprised.) Continue reading “Can Bernie Sanders Claim the Nomination?”

New Trade Deals Give Trump a Political Boost Amid Impeachment Turmoil

While impeachment dominated the headlines this week, there was also plenty of big news on the trade front, most notably the long-awaited signing of the Trump administration’s “phase one” trade deal with China.

So what’s in the deal? Plenty of ink has been spilled about China’s commitment to purchase an additional $200 billion of U.S. goods and services over the next two years. For reference, U.S. exports to China totaled $185 billion in 2017, the baseline year, meaning that they would have to increase a whopping 54% in 2020 to keep pace.

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New North American Free Trade Deal Brings Welcome Relief to Businesses

Barring some last-minute hiccups, a deal to ratify the new North American free trade pact appears to be in place, giving President Trump a major political victory and U.S. farmers and businesses some much-needed good news.

Plenty has been said about the politics of the deal, which comes after months of negotiations and amid a divisive impeachment inquiry in Congress. Perhaps the most surprising development was the endorsement of AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka; anyone with a passing knowledge of U.S. politics knows organized labor is no friend of free trade agreements. Continue reading “New North American Free Trade Deal Brings Welcome Relief to Businesses”

How Population Growth Will Affect Political Power Post-2020

It’s still too soon to say who will win the 2020 presidential election, now less than a year away. But plenty can be said about a major political event that won’t happen until after 2020: Congressional reapportionment, the process of divvying up the 435 seats in the House of Representatives based on population growth, which occurs every decade following the U.S. Census.

At least 16 states will gain or lose seats in Congress after the 2020 Census, based on the latest demographic trends. One thing to keep in mind: Since the number of House seats is fixed at 435, even states that are still adding people, such as Calif., are at risk of losing representation in Congress.

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Carbon Capture Captures Washington’s Attention

Democrats and Republicans don’t agree on much these days, especially not where climate change is concerned. On Capitol Hill, the debate remains highly polarized: While left-wing Democrats champion the controversial Green New Deal, many Republicans still don’t believe climate change is a real problem.

But lawmakers do agree on at least one possible way to address the issue: Carbon capture and sequestration, or CCS, the process of capturing man-made carbon dioxide at the source and either using or storing it underground.

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Taking Stock of the 2018 Midterms

Another Election Day has come and gone after the American people rendered a split decision on the Republican Party’s total control of Washington. As expected, the House of Representatives will be in Democratic hands for the first time since 2011 come January. Republicans managed not only to keep, but expand their Senate majority, knocking off a least three vulnerable Democratic incumbents in states that voted for President Trump in 2016.

What does this election cycle portend for Congress and the future of America’s two major political parties? Here are a few key takeaways:

Gridlock will almost certainly increase on Capitol Hill, perhaps as early as next week when lawmakers return to hold a lame-duck session of Congress to dispense with unfinished business. Although Trump and House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi said on Wednesday that they will pursue a bipartisan agenda and could possibly work together on an elusive national infrastructure plan, any initial comity is unlikely to last. Just hours after praising Pelosi, Trump upped the ante by firing Attorney General Jeff Sessions.

And once they assume the majority next year, Democrats will investigate everything from Trump’s tax returns to his business and possible political ties to Russia. Thorny immigration issues will inevitably arise, possibly as soon as next week. Plus, any bill passed by a Democratic-run House can easily be stopped by a Republican-led Senate.

More Republicans in the Senate means Trump—and GOP Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky—can push even harder. Despite the loss of Dean Heller in Nevada, the party picked up seats in Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and possibly Florida as well.

Undecided Senate races aside, Trump and McConnell should have no problem accomplishing their top priority: confirming conservative judges to federal courts. A larger GOP majority also gives the president more power to overhaul his cabinet, which he wasted no time setting to with Sessions’ dismissal. He also won’t have to contend with internal naysayers as Sens. Jeff Flake and Bob Corker, two vocal Trump critics, are retiring at year’s end.

2016 foretold the future: Democrats continue to gain strength in urban and suburban areas, Republicans in rural ones. These electoral shifts may not amount to a “realignment,” as some observers are suggesting. But the trend lines are clear.

Take Minnesota, where on election night Democrats flipped two Republican-held districts in the Minneapolis suburbs, but lost two rural-based seats. Indeed, of the 32 seats Democrats definitely flipped (ballots are still being counted in some states), 31 are considered urban or suburban; some were represented by a Republican for decades. Contrast that with the 2006 midterms when Democrats took back the House by winning many of the districts that propelled Trump to victory in 2016.

The Senate tells largely the same story. Many forecasters thought incumbency might save such vulnerable red-state Democrats as Joe Donnelly in Indiana and Claire McCaskill in Missouri. Instead, both lost handily, thanks in part to Trump’s ability to juice GOP turnout in the party’s rural strongholds.

Last but not least, both parties set themselves up well for 2020, with Republicans winning statewide races in Florida and Ohio, both presidential bellwethers, and Democrats showing renewed strength in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, longtime blue strongholds that Trump won narrowly in 2016.

The joke around Washington is that the 2020 presidential campaign officially began as soon as the 2018 midterm results were in. Thankfully, that contest is far enough away Kiplinger need not offer a forecast just yet.

Supreme Court Nomination Rests on Accuser’s Decision to Testify

Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination is on the rocks after a woman accused the judge of sexually assaulting her when they were both in high school, 35 years ago.

The allegations put what might otherwise have been a surefire confirmation on hold, with key Republicans initially joining Democrats in calling for additional time to evaluate the claims of Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, who finally went public with her story last week after notifying congressional Democrats in July. Continue reading “Supreme Court Nomination Rests on Accuser’s Decision to Testify”

McCain’s Legacy: Fierce Independence

The death of Arizona Sen. John McCain after a year-long battle with brain cancer leaves Congress, the Republican Party and U.S. foreign policy without a crucial leader.

There’s little that hasn’t been said about the “last lion” of the Senate, who spent 35 years in Congress and made two unsuccessful bids for the presidency, winning the Republican nomination in 2008 before losing to then-fellow Sen. Barack Obama in the general election.

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CAFE Rollback Uncorks Another Regulatory Fight

The Trump administration’s push to roll back vehicle fuel-economy standards sets the stage for a lengthy legal battle with Democrats, environmental groups and the state of California, who hail the Obama administration rules as a landmark achievement in the fight against climate change.

Once finalized, the joint proposal from the Environmental Protection Agency and Transportation Department would suspend required increases in corporate average fuel-economy standards (CAFE) after 2020, capping them at a fleet average of 37 miles per gallon. President Obama’s plan, by contrast, called for raising the standard to 47 miles per gallon by 2025.

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Control of Congress on the Line as Fall Midterms Loom

Control of Congress is once again on the line as Democrats and Republicans gear up for the November midterm elections. With voting less than five months away, where do the two parties stand?

The race for the House is too close to call at this point. Democrats will certainly gain seats; the “out” party usually does during non-presidential elections. They need a net gain of at least 23 for a majority. Continue reading “Control of Congress on the Line as Fall Midterms Loom”