Donald Trump’s first 100 days will feature plenty of speculation about the president making nice with Russia. Indeed, there are already rumblings about a potential nuclear summit in Reykjavik, Iceland, the same city where three decades ago Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev started negotiations that would eventually bring the Cold War to a peaceful conclusion. Trump has also hinted at the possibility of lifting sanctions on Moscow should the Kremlin prove a valuable ally in the fight against Islamic terrorism.
But don’t expect the new president to make any bold moves right away. Developing a coherent foreign policy takes time. Despite the infamous “reset” photo-op, it took several months for the Obama administration to devise its Russia strategy, according to Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Wilson Center. For Trump, this task will be made extra difficult by a number of factors. Continue reading “Will Trump and Putin Be Buddies?”
Among the biggest questions facing President-elect Donald Trump: What will be the new “norms” of cyberspace in a rapidly changing technological and geopolitical landscape? The answer is far from clear. Moreover, there is very little precedent for tackling some of the thorniest problems the president must confront.
Expect Trump to favor firm retaliation for any major cyber-breaches, especially if China is the culprit. He has already voiced his intention to take a harder line against Beijing on a range of issues, including trade. China, meanwhile, will be more inclined to challenge the U.S. if it feels its vital interests, such as Taiwan and the “One-China” policy, are truly at stake. Continue reading “Trump’s Cybersecurity Challenges”
President Obama will almost certainly deliver a forceful response to Russia’s cyber-meddling in the 2016 presidential election before his term expires next month and Donald Trump moves into the Oval Office.
What that response will look like is hard to say, though sanctions are much more likely than harsher measures. Cyberdefense remains a weak spot for the U.S., and questions about the best way to respond to acts of online aggression have largely gone unanswered during Obama’s time in office, according to Claude Barfield of the American Enterprise Institute. Continue reading “What Will Obama, Trump Do About Russia?”
It’s a good bet that federal spending and the annual budget deficits will increase during the Trump administration, despite opposition from many members of his own party who will hold firm on reining in government outlays.
But the Republican-controlled Congress isn’t about to give President-elect Donald Trump a blank check. The credit rating service Moody’s forecasts that if he were to get everything on his spending wish list, the deficit as a share of GDP would likely top 10% by the end of his four-year term, compared with 3% now. That’s not going to happen.
Continue reading “Coming: GOP Infighting over Federal Spending”
With his victory in the U.S. presidential election, Donald Trump has the potential to upend the consensus that has governed American foreign policy since the end of the Cold War.
Will he? The short answer: Probably not. There’s an old saying about presidential candidates and foreign policy: “Where you stand depends on where you sit.” In other words, Trump the president will take a far different approach than Trump the Republican nominee, much as Barack Obama did after he was elected in 2008.
Continue reading “Will Trump’s foreign policy upend the post cold war consensus?”
Will America experience an outbreak of post-election violence? It’s a strong possibility. 2016 has been arguably the ugliest election year in recent memory, marred by allegations of corruption and sexual misconduct and fears that talk of “rigged” elections is undermining faith in the country’s political system.
Unfortunately, it’s likely to leave even more ugliness in its wake. Domestic terrorism experts are warning of a potential uptick in violent incidents associated with the result of the presidential election, regardless of who ends up winning the White House.
Continue reading “Should You Prepare for Post-Election Violence?”
Voters in many states will decide more than just the next president when they head to the polls on election day. They’ll also consider more than 160 ballot measures, which allow ordinary citizens to bypass their elected officials and enact laws directly.
That number is pretty low by election-year standards; 180 is more typical. But according to Justine Sarver of the Ballot Initiative Strategy Center, this year’s crop of ballot measures is significant for two reasons.
Continue reading “How Ballot Initiatives Might Skew November’s Election Results”
No matter who wins the White House, North Korea and Iran will test U.S. policy, diplomacy.
The next U.S. president will face two formidable but very different foreign policy challenges.
Continue reading “Nuclear Challenges Loom for Trump or Clinton”