If Democrats hold on to the White House, will that help the price of your home? Or would the housing market fare better with a Republican victory? The fact is, it won’t matter much which party wins the White House in November — at least not when it comes to housing prices.
A study of real estate in California going back to 1980, found that housing prices rose by as much as 6% in the year before an election and about 5% in the year after an election, but only 4.5% during election years. A possible explanation for the slower price growth is that presidential elections create uncertainty, making people less likely to take chances on large purchases, thus slowing down the rate of increase in home values.
The California Association of Realtors has looked at home prices in the state dating back to 1990 and found that elections historically have had little or no negative impact on the California housing market. It did find that house prices rose slightly faster in the last months of the last five presidential elections.
Continue reading “How Will the Presidential Election Affect the Housing Market?”
We expect the Federal Reserve to raise its federal funds interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5% at its meeting on December 14. This will have a domino effect, boosting some loan and deposit rates for consumers, but not all of them.
How the Fed Rate Hike Will Affect Your Loan Rates
When the Fed raises, the bank prime rate will immediately jump by the same quarter percentage point. Interest rates on home equity lines of credit will also rise by the same amount, to a minimum of 3.75%. Auto and personal loan rates should rise, too. In fact, auto lenders may nudge their rates up a tick more in the months to come as delinquencies on subprime auto loans creep up.
Continue reading “How the Next Fed Rate Hike Will Affect You”
The collapse of one of the world’s largest ocean carriers has marooned more than half a million cargo containers in international waters. As much as $14 billion worth of cargo is stuck in limbo awaiting the fate of bankrupt Hanjin Shipping, with dozens of vessels anchored offshore filled with toys, shoes, computers, couches, dishwashers, etc. Port operators and cargo handlers refuse to unload the ships until they are paid.
Hanjin’s global creditors have impounded at least eight vessels, and about 80 are still at sea until captains are assured ships and cargo won’t be seized. It isn’t clear whether Hanjin’s parent company will be able to secure the $90 million it pledged to ease the carrier’s financial woes, or whether that will be enough to dent Hanjin’s $5.5-billion debt. The company has resorted to selling off ships from its 149-vessel fleet, after signs that the South Korean government won’t bail out its largest ocean carrier.
Continue reading “Billions’ Worth of Merchandise Stranded at Sea”
Widening 4% in ’16, after a 6.2% increase in ’15
Weak global growth combined with a relatively strong U.S. dollar will drive the U.S. trade deficit up 4% this year, as American exporters struggle to stay competitive in key trading nations. The drag on exports is likely to continue into next year. Continue reading “Trade Deficit Increases in Listless World Economy”
4% growth in ’16, compared with 4.8% in ’15 (excluding gas)
Feeling more confident about the economy, the job market and their own financial stability, shoppers dialed up spending in June. The third consecutive month of gains marks a strong end to the second quarter of 2016, though challenges remain as retailers grapple with changing industry trends—more online shopping, free shipping demands, etc. Continue reading “Consumers Rev Up Spending”
Prices up 5% on average in major metro areas
Favorable mortgage rates and healthy job growth will spur home buying and residential construction in coming months.
Continue reading “Housing Market Keeps Its Momentum”
Flat in ’16, after drop in ’15
Turmoil in overseas markets is adding an extra layer of caution to U.S. businesses’ plans for investment in new equipment purchases.
Continue reading “Flat Growth for Business Spending in 2016”
2.4% in ’17, up from 1.8% in ’16
Consumer price inflation will continue to pick up through the rest of the year, though at a rate of 1.8%, a slower pace than we have been forecasting because energy and food price increases are moderating.
Continue reading “Inflation on the Rise”
10-year T-notes at 1.4% by end ’16
The vote by Britain to leave the European Union has completely changed the outlook for interest rates. Rates should stay low for an extended period of time as U.S. Treasury notes and bonds remain important safe haven investments in the face of uncertainty over growth in Europe and Japan.
Continue reading “Brexit Vote Puts Damper on Interest Rates”
Hiring slowing to 150K-200K/month by end ’16
Look for job growth to gradually retreat into the range of 150,000 to 200,000 jobs per month — versus a strong 255,000 jobs added in July — as the hot employment market of the past few years downshifts to a more sustainable pace.
Continue reading “Pace of Job Growth to Slow”