Flat in ’16, after drop in ’15
Turmoil in overseas markets is adding an extra layer of caution to U.S. businesses’ plans for investment in new equipment purchases.
Continue reading “Flat Growth for Business Spending in 2016”
Category: The Economy
Inflation on the Rise
2.4% in ’17, up from 1.8% in ’16
Consumer price inflation will continue to pick up through the rest of the year, though at a rate of 1.8%, a slower pace than we have been forecasting because energy and food price increases are moderating.
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Brexit Vote Puts Damper on Interest Rates
10-year T-notes at 1.4% by end ’16
The vote by Britain to leave the European Union has completely changed the outlook for interest rates. Rates should stay low for an extended period of time as U.S. Treasury notes and bonds remain important safe haven investments in the face of uncertainty over growth in Europe and Japan.
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Pace of Job Growth to Slow
Hiring slowing to 150K-200K/month by end ’16
Look for job growth to gradually retreat into the range of 150,000 to 200,000 jobs per month — versus a strong 255,000 jobs added in July — as the hot employment market of the past few years downshifts to a more sustainable pace.
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Uncertainty Clouding GDP Outlook
1.4% growth for the year; a 2% pace in ’17
The U.S. economy continues to plod along in lackluster fashion, as evidenced by the fact that the gross domestic product climbed at just a 1.2% annualized rate in the second quarter.
Continue reading “Uncertainty Clouding GDP Outlook”