With his victory in the U.S. presidential election, Donald Trump has the potential to upend the consensus that has governed American foreign policy since the end of the Cold War.
Will he? The short answer: Probably not. There’s an old saying about presidential candidates and foreign policy: “Where you stand depends on where you sit.” In other words, Trump the president will take a far different approach than Trump the Republican nominee, much as Barack Obama did after he was elected in 2008.
Continue reading “Will Trump’s foreign policy upend the post cold war consensus?”
Now comes the hard part for Donald Trump – turning the rhetoric of one of the most divisive campaigns in decades into the reality of governing.
When Trump becomes the 45th president of the United States on Jan. 20, 2017, Republicans will hold power in the House and have narrow control of the Senate. In normal circumstances, that’s a huge advantage when it comes to implementing an agenda. But these might not be normal circumstances.
Continue reading “Trump’s Agenda and Challenges”
With the presidential election just days away, editors from the Kiplinger Letter sat down to take stock of the race and offer Kiplinger’s forecast.
The bottom line: Hillary Clinton has an easier path to victory than Donald Trump, but the race is close. Kiplinger’s David Morris and Matthew Housiaux talk about the forecast, key states and what to expect when the votes are counted — all in just 12 minutes.
Continue reading “Kiplinger Extra – Election 2016”
Will America experience an outbreak of post-election violence? It’s a strong possibility. 2016 has been arguably the ugliest election year in recent memory, marred by allegations of corruption and sexual misconduct and fears that talk of “rigged” elections is undermining faith in the country’s political system.
Unfortunately, it’s likely to leave even more ugliness in its wake. Domestic terrorism experts are warning of a potential uptick in violent incidents associated with the result of the presidential election, regardless of who ends up winning the White House.
Continue reading “Should You Prepare for Post-Election Violence?”
When I was a kid, a regular feature in a magazine my mom subscribed to was called “Can This Marriage Be Saved?” That headline, which I hadn’t thought about in decades, popped into my head Sunday night as I watched Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton slog through the mud of their second debate.
The marriage I was thinking about is between Trump and his supporters and the mainstream wing of the Republican Party. Clearly, his supporters are much more fired up about Trump’s presidential campaign than the party regulars are. In fact, some of the regulars have already separated from Trump, deeming the White House unwinnable and deciding to focus on trying to keep the Senate and House in Republican hands as a last line of defense against a Clinton presidency.
Continue reading “Can This (Political) Marriage Be Saved?”
Voters in many states will decide more than just the next president when they head to the polls on election day. They’ll also consider more than 160 ballot measures, which allow ordinary citizens to bypass their elected officials and enact laws directly.
That number is pretty low by election-year standards; 180 is more typical. But according to Justine Sarver of the Ballot Initiative Strategy Center, this year’s crop of ballot measures is significant for two reasons.
Continue reading “How Ballot Initiatives Might Skew November’s Election Results”
The first draft of history often turns out to be wrong once more facts and details come to light. That’s worth keeping in mind after Monday night’s first debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
The initial consensus of pundits is that Clinton had a better debate but didn’t come close to throwing a knockout punch. And she clearly knew how to bait Trump to keep him off balance and on the defensive.
Continue reading “Don’t Rush to Judgment on Last Night’s Presidential Debate”
Keep this number in mind if you watch Monday night’s first presidential debate: 20%. That’s the slice of the American electorate that isn’t supporting either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump at the moment and, thus, the segment most likely to be swayed by what they see and hear.
Here’s my math: Approximately 40% of likely voters responding to polls in September say they will support Clinton and a similar number say they’re backing Trump. To the degree that those numbers change–a tick or two either way–the support seems to come from the one in five folks who seem to have plans that don’t include either of the mainstream candidates.
Continue reading “For Clinton and Trump, Big Debate, Small Target”
What if the presidential election comes down to a congressional district that’s so rural that, as The Almanac of American Politics puts it, “some valleys have more moose than people”? It’s not a fantasy. There’s a plausible path that could make voters in northern Maine’s 2nd Congressional District kingmakers on Election Day.
Maine and Nebraska are the only states that award one electoral vote to the candidate that carries each congressional district. The distinction usually doesn’t matter, but this year it’s not such a longshot bet to think that one of Maine’s electoral votes could go to Donald Trump and put him in the White House.
Continue reading “Can a Rural Congressional District Make Trump President?”
Trump will get a bounce after the Republican convention, but Clinton is poised to regain ground.
Continue reading “Bumpy Road Ahead in 2016 Presidential Race”